Well the “financial markets” seem to be stabilising. The Dow Jones is recovering while London’s ‘Footsie’ (FTSE) has actually made a gain. Here are last nite’s Dow and the FTSE.
Perhaps more relevant than the tariff issue the situation in Ukraine is moving towards a consolidation of its own with very far reaching implications. And it is now moving very fast.
I mentioned earlier that for the first time in the history of NATO the US will NOT BE ATTENDING a major NATO meeting on 11 April to be held in Germany. America is saying ‘We are out’.
A couple of days back something else happened. The US has “redeployed” its military personnel from a key military base in Poland.
US relocates its military from key logistics hub in Poland through which Ukraine receives aid. Ivanna Kostina, STANISLAV POHORILOV — Tuesday, 8 April 2025
The US Army Europe and Africa has announced the redeployment of US military personnel and equipment from Jasionka Airport in Poland, which is a key hub for assistance to Ukraine. Source: a statement by the US Army Europe and Africa, as reported by European Pravda
This means there will be no more American arms coming through that logistics hub in Poland. And US troops are being pulled out. Poland has been at the forefront of shaking their fist at Russia. This move by the US to pull out US soldiers is basically telling the Poles, ‘if you want to pick a fight with Russia, you are on your own’. This is exactly what Donald Trump told Keir Starmer to his face at the White House and in front of the Media ‘can you fight Russia on your own‘?
Moves are also afoot for the US to unilaterally remove certain economic sanctions against Russia, particularly the correspondent banking activities (to facilitate payment for Russian exports and imports) and Russia’s access to the SWIFT money transfer system. Opening up the SWIFT is obviously being blocked by the Europeans (read as the British) but the US can still lift sanctions on Russia. They are talking about ‘agricultural exports’, agricultural produce bla bla but that is just camouflage. Eventually all Russian exports and imports will be opened up.
There is talk about Russian ‘reciprocity’. Russia will remove ‘obstacles’ in the Black Sea which will allow Ukrainian exports to resume as well. Todate Russia has kept to their word. Mr Putin accepted Donald Trump’s call for a partial ceasefire which was for both Russia and Ukraine NOT to attack their energy infrastructures. The British sabotaged that ceasefire by attacking Russian gas pipelines the very next day. However there has been no more news of Russia attacking energy infra inside Ukraine. Mr Putin is keeping to his end of the ceasefire even if Britain and Ukraine have not.
Certainly this does not go unnoticed by the Americans. But on the ground Russian forces are advancing along the entire 1,200 km frontlines. Over the past week so many of their ‘unpronounce-able’ viilages and towns have fallen to the Russians. Selidove, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove etc are old news already. Next up are big towns like Sumy, Kupiansk etc.
At that ‘ill-fated’ White House brawl between Zelenskiyy and Donald Trump, Mr Trump told Zelenskiyy point blank that ‘you dont hold any cards‘. And that ‘the war is moving against you‘. And now American troops are being pulled out of Poland. The US is just one step away from declaring publicly that the Ukraine war has been lost. Russia has won.
The Trump Administration certainly does not look at Russia as an enemy or even as a rival. It is most likely that America and Russia will become friends and allies. While America looks at China as a serious threat and rival, Russia and China are Best Friends Forever. Hence there should be a moderating influence among the Three Best Friends.
Imagine if the US, Russia and China are on the same side. The world will settle down. Trade will take off. And time could be better spent swatting those damned flies in the Middle East.
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